Irrational Unexuberance – God of the Machine
Jul 222002
 

Greenspan made his famous remarks about “irrational exuberance” on December 5, 1996. The Dow closed that day at 6413. If you had bought the index the next morning and sold it at the open today (probably not a very clever idea), you would have earned a compound rate of about 3.75%. Now that isn’t great; you would have done a little better in bonds. But it beats inflation. So why is everyone acting like blood is running in the streets? Is there a divine right to 20% annual returns?

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